Ngemuva kwamaviki ambalwa emakethe yokulinganisa, I-Moody's ne-Fitch zithuthukise isilinganiso sokuzimela sase-Spain ngenotshi eyodwa.Izinqumo zibeka isikweletu sikaHulumeni izinga A futhi elinombono ozinzile, ehlanganisa ukunyakaza i-S&P Global eyayivele iyiqalile maphakathi nenyanga.
Ama-ejensi amalulela ushintsho umnotho olinganiselayo futhi oqinile, esekelwa ukukhula ngaphezu kwesilinganiso se-eurozone, i amandla emakethe yezabasebenzi kanye nohlelo lwezezimali oluqinile. Umlayezo oya kubatshalizimali ucacile: ukuzethemba okukhulu nezimo ezingcono zezimali.
Lokho uMoody kanye noFitch abakunqumile
I-Moody's inyusa isilinganiso saseSpain kusuka ku-Baa1 kuya ku-A3, izinga eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-2012, futhi libeka umbono walo uzinzile (ngaphambilini beyiphozithivu). Esikalini sayo, i-A3 itholakala ku- isinyathelo sesikhombisa sebanga lokutshala imali.
I-Fitch, ngakolunye uhlangothi, iphakamisa isilinganiso kusuka ku-A kuya ku-A futhi igcina a umbono ozinzile ngemuva kokuthuthukisa ukuchema kwaba kuhle ngo-2024. Lokhu ukubuyekezwa kokuqala okukhuphukayo kokulinganisa kwakho kwe-Spain kusuka ku-2018.
Lokhu kuthuthukiswa kuqedela umnyakazo oqalwe yi-S&P, ekhuphule isilinganiso sayo emasontweni amabili edlule. ukusuka ku-A ukuya ku-A+ ngokubuka okuzinzileNgalokhu, iSpain isiphinde yaba no-'A' phakathi ama-ejensi amakhulu amathathu.
Ukuma okuhlobene nakho kuyaphawuleka: maphakathi nenyanga, UFitch wehlisela iFrance izinga ukusuka ku-AA- kuya ku-A, egqamisa ukwehlukana ekuzinzeni kwezepolitiki kanye nama-akhawunti omphakathi ngaphakathi kwe-eurozone.
Kungani ibanga likhuphuka
Izikhungo ezintathu zokulinganisa ziyavuma ukuthi umnotho waseSpain umangele phezulu. Bacaphuna u-a imodeli yokukhula elinganiselayo, inqubekelaphambili emsebenzini kanye nomkhakha wamabhange onempilo oqinisa i ukumelana nokushaqeka kwangaphandle.
Phakathi kwezinto ezisekelwa umjikelezo, okulandelayo kuyagqama: ukugeleza kwenetha elihle lokufuduka kanye nezisusa zokwelula impilo yokusebenza, izinto ezidambisa ukugula imikhawulo yokuhlinzeka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwanda kokungena kwe amandla avuselelekayo kanye nokuzinza kwe-macroeconomic kunikeza i-traction eyengeziwe.
I-Fitch igxile ku- ukuncintisana kwangaphandle ngenxa yezinzuzo zokukhiqiza, ukulinganiswa kwamaholo kanye nezindleko zamandla aphansi, kanye ukuthunyelwa kwezinsizakalo eziqinile nezihlukene. Iphinde igcizelele i ukuchayeka okulinganiselwe ezindlekweni zase-US futhi i ukuhambisa kwangaphandle Kuyaqhubeka.
Ngokwezibikezelo, i-Fitch inyusa i-GDP elindelwe 2,7% ngo-2025 futhi kuya 2,0% ngo-2026, ngokuhambisana nesibuyekezo sikaHulumeni (2,7% ngo-2025 kanye no-2,2% ngo-2026, no-2,1% ngo-2027-2028). Izinhlangano ezifana ne-OECD kanye ne-IMF ziqondise amazinga ka-2026 phakathi kuka-2,0% no-2,5%.
Izibikezelo zikaMoody a indlela yokunciphisa izikweletu kancane kancane umphakathi uma izinga lokukhula ligcinwa, nesilinganiso sezikweletu sisondela cishe i-100% ye-GDP esikhathini esimaphakathi.
Imithelela kwezezimali nezimakethe
Ukweqa kokulinganisa kuthumela isignali evumayo kubatshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe futhi kungenzeka ukunciphisa izindleko wezindaba ezintsha zoMgcinimafa. I uphawu lwekhwalithi ku-'A' kuqinisa isidingo ezindalini futhi kuthuthukisa umbono wengozi.
Esikalini sikaMoody, isikweletu saseSpain sisuka ezingeni 'kuyanelisa' kuya 'kukuhle' ngaphakathi kwebanga lokutshalwa kwezimali, okusiza ukufinyelela okunokuncintisana okwengeziwe ezimakethe zezitolo ezinkulu.
Ngemuva kokuthuthukiswa kwe-S&P, i- i-premium yobungozi yaba khona ngaphansi kwamaphoyinti angama-55, amazinga angabonakali cishe eminyakeni engamashumi amabili. I-dynamics yamazinga nokusabalala kuzoncika, nokho, ku- ukukhishwa kwentela kanye nomjikelezo waseYurophu.
Umthelela wokudonsa ungadlulela ku- ikhredithi yangasese: umbono ovumayo ngobukhosi uvame ukudluliselwa kuwo izindleko eziphansi zezimali yezinkampani nezinhlangano.
Izinselelo ezisasele etafuleni
Ama-ejensi axwayisa ngokuthi ukuguga kwabantu izoqhubeka nokukhinyabeza ukukhula okungaba khona (uMoody uyibeka eduze 1,5% -1,6%). Izinguquko zempesheni—okuhlanganisa nohlelo lwemihlomulo nezinhlawulo—zikhuphule iminyaka yokuthatha umhlalaphansi esebenzayo, kodwa ingcindezi yesikhathi esimaphakathi iyaqhubeka.
Ezingeni lesikhungo, bakhomba okukhulu ukuhlukana kwezombusazwe kanye nobunzima besiGungu sokukhuluma iningi elizinzile, into ekhulisa ukusetshenziswa kwemithetho futhi engakhiqiza ukungaqiniseki kokutshalwa kwezimali.
I-Fitch yengeza ubungozi bokuvalwa kwephalamende nomsindo wezepolitiki, kanye nesidingo sokuthi a ukuhlanganiswa kwezimali okuthembekile. I ukusetshenziswa kwemali ezimpeshenini nasekuvikeleni izokhawulela amamajini esabelomali.
I-Moody's yayixwayise kulo nyaka ngomthelela ongase ube khona ukuthethelelwa kwesikweletu sesifunda (ezinye Izigidi ezingu-85.000) ngekhwalithi yekhredithi; ngaphandle kwalokhu, manje ithuthukisa isilinganiso futhi ibeka a umbono ozinzile, egcizelela ukuthi isimo esimaphakathi sihlala singesokuqina.
Inqubekelaphambili ku ukwehliswa kwezikweletu kuzoncika ekushaqekeni okungenzeki kanye nokugcina ukukhula okuqinile. ukuwohloka kokushoda noma ibhalansi yangaphandle ingabambezela, noma ihlehlise, ukuthambekela.
Nge ngcono kathathu Kusukela ku-S&P, Moody's and Fitch, Spain iphinda ibe yindawo engokomfanekiso ekilabhini yezomnotho 'A' isilinganisoInhlanganisela yokukhula okungaphezu kwesilinganiso, imakethe yezabasebenzi eqinile, kanye nesistimu yezezimali enempilo ichaza ushintsho, kuyilapho izibalo zabantu, ukubusa, kanye nebhalansi yezimali kuzonquma ukuthi lokhu kuthuthukiswa kuyahlanganiswa futhi kuhunyushelwe ekubeni yinhlangano. ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zezimali.
