Kunezingosi zomhlaba ezibonakala zingabalulekile, kodwa empeleni ziyiqiniso ngempela. izikhungo zemizwa zesimiso somhlabaI-Strait of Hormuz iyisibonelo esihle kakhulu: umzila wamanzi omncane kakhulu obaluleke kakhulu kunobukhulu bawo obubonakalayo. Uma ubheka ngaphandle, ungase ubonakale nje njengomzila wemikhumbi, kodwa okwenzeka emanzini awo kunomthelela oqondile kwezezimali, amandla, kanye nokuzinza komnotho kwengxenye yomhlaba.
Kulesi siqephu esihlukanisa i-Iran ne-Oman, bayawela ijografi, umlando, uwoyela, igesi kanye namandla amakhulu ezempiLapho imibiko yezindaba ikhuluma ngokungezwani eStrait of Hormuz, izimakethe ziyazamazama, amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ayakhuphuka, futhi izinkampani zokuthumela izimpahla ziphinde zicabange ngemizila yazo. Ukuqonda ukuthi kungani lo msele ubalulekile akuyona nje into ethakazelisayo ngokwezepolitiki: kusisiza ukuqonda ukusebenza kwangaphakathi komnotho wamandla womhlaba kanye nokuthi kungani noma yiluphi uhlamvu endaweni lungakhuphula intengo kaphethiloli, ugesi, noma ukudla okuqhele ngamakhilomitha ayizinkulungwane.
Indawo kanye nezici zendawo zeStrait of Hormuz
I-Strait of Hormuz iyindawo ephephile indlela yolwandle ephakathi kwePersian Gulf neGulf of Omanokuyinto exhumanisa ne I-Indian OceanIsebenza njengesango lalo lonke i-Persian Gulf basin ukuya emhlabeni wonke, okwenza kube yindawo yokuthutha ephoqelekile yokuthunyelwa kwamandla amaningi esifundeni.
Ngokombono we-cartographic, lo msele utholakala cishe phakathi kwe- 26° kanye no-27° enyakatho ye-latitude kanye no-56° kanye no-57° empumalanga ye-longitudeNgasenyakatho, inqamula isifundazwe sase-Iran iHormozgan; eningizimu, inqunyelwe yiMusandam Peninsula, indawo engaphandle kweSultanate of Oman ehlukaniswe nezwe lonke yi-United Arab Emirates. Ngamanye amazwi, sibhekene nendawo lapho abadlali abaningana bakahulumeni abanezintshisekelo ezibucayi kakhulu behlangana khona.
Ngokuphathelene nobukhulu, lo mkhondo umayelana 190 amakhilomitha kanye nobubanzi obusukela kumakhilomitha angaba ngu-56 endaweni yalo ebanzi kakhulu kuya cishe Amakhilomitha angu-33 endaweni yayo encane kakhuluKungase kubonakale sengathi kunendawo eningi, kodwa iqiniso lokusebenza lihlukile kakhulu: indawo ekwazi ukuhanjwa yimikhumbi emikhulu incane kakhulu.
Ithrafikhi ihlelwa nge- Uhlelo Lokuhlukanisa Ithrafikhi (i-TSS) Njengoba ivunyiwe yi-International Maritime Organisation, lolu hlelo lusungula imizila emibili yokuhamba ngemikhumbi, ngayinye ingaba ngamamayela amabili ububanzi, ihlukaniswe yindawo yokuphepha engamamayela amabili. Empeleni, imikhumbi emikhulu kawoyela kanye nemikhumbi ethwala igesi ihamba ngaphakathi kwendlela ephumelelayo engamamayela ayi-6 okuhamba ngemikhumbi endaweni encane kakade.
Ukujula kungenye into ebalulekile: iStrait of Hormuz inomoya owanele ukuvumela ukudlula amathangi amakhulu kakhulu (ama-VLCC) kanye nezithwali zegesi yemvelo ezimanzi ngaphandle kwemingcele yesakhiwo ehlala njalo. Lokhu kuhlanganiswa kokujula okwanele kanye nendawo elinganiselwe kudala ukuminyana okukhulu kwezimoto endaweni ecindezelwe kakhulu, okuphindaphinda ukubaluleka kwesu lendawo.
Umzila womlando ophikiswana ngawo yimibuso namandla
Kudala ngaphambi kokuba abe mkhulu Inkinga yamandla yekhulu lama-21I-Strait of Hormuz yayivele iyindlela efiselekayo. Kusukela endulo, amanzi axhumanisa iPersian Gulf ne-Indian Ocean abelokhu eyindawo yezingxabano phakathi kwamaPheresiya, amaRoma, ama-Ottoman, amaPutukezi, namaNgisi, phakathi kwabanye. Kwakungeyona nje kuphela ukulawula ukuhweba kwesifunda, kodwa kwakumayelana nokulawula umzila ovumela ukufinyelela ezimakethe nasezinsizeni ezikude.
Ngokukhuphuka kwamadiphozithi amakhulu uwoyela negesi ePersian Gulf Kuyo yonke ikhulu lama-20, indima yalo yanda kakhulu. Isifunda saseGulf, esakha ugu lwase-Iran, e-Iraq, e-Kuwait, e-Saudi Arabia, e-Bahrain, e-Qatar, e-United Arab Emirates, nase-Oman, siphethe ezinye zezinsiza zamandla ezinkulu kakhulu emhlabeni. Lo msele waba, ngokoqobo, isango lalezi zinsiza eliya e-Asia, eYurophu naseMelika.
Ukuba khona kwamandla angaphandle kwesifunda kwaba yinto eqhubekayo. I-United Kingdom kuqala, futhi kamuva, I-United States neFifth Fleet yayoBaqinisa ukuba khona kwabo kwezempi ngesizathu sokuqinisekisa inkululeko yokuhamba ngemikhumbi kanye nokuphepha kokutholakala kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-Iran yaqinisa indima yayo njengomdlali obalulekile ngenxa yokulawula kwayo ugu olusenyakatho.
Kakade ngawo-1980, ngesikhathi Impi ye-Iran-IraqLo mfula wangena kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi "impi yamathangi." Womabili la mazwe ahlasela imikhumbi yangaphandle ukuze afake ingcindezi kwezomnotho kubaphikisi bawo. I-United States yagcina iphelezela imikhumbi yamathangi yaseKuwaiti emsebenzini omkhulu kakhulu wemikhumbi yasolwandle kusukela ngeMpi Yezwe II, okubonisa izinga lapho kungekho mandla ayezimisele ukubona ukuthi leyo ndlela ivaliwe.
Lesi sici somlando sichaza ukuthi kungani noma yikuphi ukungqubuzana kwesifunda—kungakhathaliseki ukuthi phakathi kwe-Iran nomakhelwane bayo, noma phakathi kwe-Iran namandla angaphandle njenge-United States noma i-Israel—cishe kube ngokoqobo imiphumela eStrait of HormuzUmlando womsele, ngezinga elikhulu, ungumlando womzabalazo wokulawula ukugeleza kwezinsizakusebenza ezibucayi kakhulu zeplanethi.
I-Hormuz njengomthambo wamandla womhlaba wonke: uwoyela negesi
Uma kukhona iqiniso elilodwa elisiza ukuchaza ukuthi kungani wonke umuntu ebheka iHormuz, yileli: cishe [inani] labantu lihamba emanzini ayo. phakathi kwengxenye eyodwa kwezinhlanu kanye nengxenye eyodwa kwezine yokuhweba ngowoyela wasolwandle emhlabeniNgo-2025, izilinganiso ezivela ezinhlanganweni ezifana ne-EIA kanye ne-IEA zibeka ukugeleza cishe emiphongolweni eyizigidi ezingu-19,8-20 ngosuku (mb/d) kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye nemikhiqizo ecolisisiwe.
Kulelo volumu, cishe I-15 mb/d ihambelana namafutha aluhlaza kanye nama-condensateNakuba cishe amabhareli ayizigidi ezi-5 ngosuku (mb/d) kuyimikhiqizo ehlungiwe (uphethiloli, udizili, uwoyela kaphethiloli, njll.). I-Saudi Arabia, i-Iraq, i-United Arab Emirates, i-Iran, i-Kuwait, ne-Qatar zibangela iningi lalokhu kuthunyelwa. Empeleni, cishe yonke imikhiqizo ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe evela ePersian Gulf Basin incike kulesi sinyathelo.
Uma kushiwo ngenye indlela, okungaphezu kwalokho imiphongolo engu-830.000 ngehoraUkwehla okucatshangelwayo okungu-10% kwethrafikhi kungasho ukususa cishe imiphongolo eyizigidi ezimbili ngosuku (mb/d) emakethe, okuyisibalo esifana nokukhiqizwa okuphelele kwamazwe amaningana athumela kwamanye amazwe ngobukhulu obuphakathi. Leli nani likhulu kakhulu kangangokuthi noma yikuphi ukuphazamiseka okuhlala isikhathi eside kubonakala ngokushesha emananini aphesheya.
Kodwa uwoyela awuyona yodwa into egeleza lapho. I-Strait of Hormuz iphinde ijikeleze i- 19-20% wezohwebo lwegesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe (LNG) emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi evela eQatar, enye yabathengisi abakhulu emhlabeni, kanye ne-United Arab Emirates. Kudingeka ukuthi kudlule u-90% we-LNG yaseQatar ukuze idlule kulo mzila.
Imakethe ye-LNG ayinazo izinto eziningi njengemakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe: imikhumbi yezinkampani ze-LNG ikhethekile, ingqalasizinda yokuxuba uketshezi kanye nokuvuselela igesi isendaweni ebanzi, futhi izinkontileka zivame ukuba zesikhathi eside. Lokhu kusho ukuthi Kunzima kakhulu ukuhambisa lawo mavolumu uma umgwaqo uvinjelwa noma uma inkokhelo yengozi ikhuphuka kakhulu.
Ubuningi bethrafikhi yasemanzini kanye nezingozi zokusebenza
Cishe abantu [abalahlekile] bawela iStrait of Hormuz njalo ngenyanga. Imikhumbi engu-3.000 yazo zonke izinhloboLokhu kusho ukuthi kudlula ikhulu lemikhumbi yansuku zonke ye-VLCC kanye ne-Suezmax, imikhumbi ethwala igesi, imikhumbi yezitsha, kanye neminye imikhumbi yezimpahla. Konke lokhu kutholakala ngaphakathi kwendlela ephumelelayo yokuthutha imikhumbi engaba amamayela ayi-6 ububanzi.
Leyo nhlanganisela yobukhulu obukhulu kanye nendawo elinganiselwe idala Ubuningi bokusebenza obungavamileUhlelo lusebenza uma nje ukugeleza kuqhubeka futhi kubikezelwa kahle. Kodwa uma ukuhlolwa kukhuphuka, kufakwa izinyathelo zokuphepha ezengeziwe, noma kwenzeka izehlakalo ezihlukile, amandla asebenzayo ayancishiswa, okudala uhlobo "lokuxinana kwezimoto olwandle."
Izinhlangano ezifana ne-UNCTAD zibheka i-Hormuz hhayi nje njengendawo ebucayi yamandla kodwa futhi isixhumanisi esibalulekile kumanethiwekhi okuhweba omhlaba wonkeNoma yikuphi ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo kungaphoqa ukulungiswa kabusha kwezindlela zokuhamba, kwandise izindleko zokuthutha, kushintshe izingcingo zechweba, futhi kushintshe ukutholakala kwemikhumbi kweminye imizila emhlabeni jikelele.
Le ndlela yokuba sengozini iye yabonwa kwezinye izindlela zamanzi eziqondiwe. I-Strait of Malacca, i-Suez Canal, kanye ne-Panama Canal nazo zisebenza njengezindawo zokudonsa amanzi, kodwa azikho ezinezinga eliphezulu kangaka lama-hydrocarbon. Ukuqhathaniswa kwenani lamafutha adlula emzileni ngamunye kuyaveza.
Ngesikhathi beseMalacca badlula 16 mb/d kawoyela ongahluziwe nemikhiqizoI-Suez Canal kanye nepayipi le-SUMED ndawonye zisingatha cishe amabhareli ayizigidi ezingu-8,8-9 ngosuku (mb/d). Iziteshi ze-Bab el-Mandeb cishe ziyi-6-6,5 mb/d. Ngaphansi kakhulu kwalezi kunezindlela ezifana ne-Danish kanye ne-Turkish straits, noma i-Panama Canal. I-Hormuz iphezulu, cishe ingama-20 mb/d, okungukuthi, uwoyela omningi kunanoma yimuphi omunye umzila emhlabeni.
Ukuqhathaniswa nezinye izithiyo zamasu
Ukuze uthole umbono wesilinganiso, umuntu udinga ukukhumbula kuphela izehlakalo zakamuva kwezinye izindawo ezibalulekile. Lapho ngo-2021 isitsha esikhulu sifika U-Ever Given wacwila eSuez Canal Izinsuku eziyisithupha, ukuhweba komhlaba wonke kwaphazamiseka kancane, kwathi izimpahla ezifika ku-$10.000 billion zathinteka nsuku zonke. Futhi le nkinga yayingeyona impi eqondile yezempi, kodwa yayiyingozi yokusebenza.
Endabeni I-Panama CanalImikhawulo yokuntuleka kwamanzi ehlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu inciphise inani lemikhumbi egunyaziwe ukuwela, okubangela ukubambezeleka kanye nokwanda kwezikhathi zokuhamba kanye nezindleko zokuthumela. Lezi yizibonelo zendlela isinyathelo esisodwa esingaphazamisa ngayo uchungechunge lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke.
I-Strait of Hormuz ifana "ne-chokepoint", kodwa inomehluko omkhulu: lapha Yebo, izintshisekelo ze-geostrategic kanye nokuncintisana kwezempi kuyahlangana.Asibhekene nje nenkinga yezobuchwepheshe noma yezemvelo; sikhuluma ngesimo lapho amandla esifunda (i-Iran, i-Saudi Arabia, i-Emirates, i-Qatar) kanye namandla omhlaba wonke (i-United States, i-China, kancane i-Russia kanye ne-European Union) esebenzisana khona.
Okwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu, izindlela ezihlukile zokusebenzisa uwoyela waseGulf zilinganiselwe kakhulu. Kunezindlela ezimbalwa zokuhambisa amanzi ezivumela ukudlula kancane iHormuzKodwa amandla azo ahlangene awasondele eduze cishe ku-20 mb/d okuvame ukuwela i-strait.
I-Saudi Arabia isebenzisa umzila wepayipi osuka eMpumalanga kuya eNtshonalanga (i-Petroline), oxhumanisa i-Abqaiq ne-Yanbu oLwandle Olubomvu futhi muva nje inwebise umthamo wayo wafinyelela cishe kumabhareli ayizigidi eziyi-7 ngosuku (mb/d), yize empeleni ingxenye kuphela yalowo mthamo ingatholakala uma kunesimo esiphuthumayo. I-United Arab Emirates ine- Ipayipi Lamafutha Angcolile lase-Abu Dhabi (i-ADCOP), exhumanisa amasimu asogwini nesiteshi saseFujairah eGulf of Oman, esinamandla angu-1,8 mb/d.
I-Iran, yona, isungule umbhobho kawoyela I-Goreh-Jask kanye nesiteshi saseJask njengephrojekthi ehlakaniphile yokuthumela uwoyela ongahluziwe olwandle lwase-Omani ngaphandle kokudlula eStrait of Hormuz. Kodwa-ke, naphezu kokuthunyelwa kokuhlolwa ngasekupheleni kuka-2024, ingqalasizinda isasebenza ngempela, ngakho-ke akuyona enye indlela esebenzayo namuhla. Ngisho nokusetshenziswa okuphezulu kwamapayipi aseSaudi nase-Emirati, igebe lama-barrel angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-10 ngosuku belizohlala lingenawo umzila osebenzayo uma iStrait of Hormuz ibingavalwa ngokuphelele.
I-geopolitics emsulwa: i-Iran, i-United States, kanye nebhodi le-chess lomhlaba wonke
Indawo yeStrait of Hormuz ihlobene kakhulu ne- ubukhulu bezepolitiki kanye nezempiIngxenye esenyakatho yalo msele ingeye-Iran, kanti ugu oluseningizimu lulawulwa yi-Oman kanye ne-United Arab Emirates. Imithethonqubo yeZizwe Ezihlangene ivumela amazwe ukuthi asebenzise ubukhosi bawo kuze kufike kumakhilomitha ayi-12 ukusuka ogwini lwawo, ngakho-ke engxenyeni encane kakhulu, imizila yemikhumbi ingaphakathi kwamanzi ase-Iran nase-Omani.
Lolu hlaka lwezomthetho lunikeza iTehran isikhundla samandla. Ezikhathini eziningana, i-Iran ibilokhu basongela ukuvimba noma ukuphazamisa ithrafikhi ngenxa yezijeziso zomnotho, imisebenzi yezempi, noma ingcindezi yezombusazwe evela e-United States kanye nabalingani bayo. Ngisho nangaphandle kokusebenzisa ngokugcwele ukuvalwa, ukukhulisa nje ithuba kuvame ukubangela ukwenyuka okusheshayo kwentengo kawoyela.
I-United States, yona, igcina ukuba khona okukhulu kwezempi zasolwandle kule ndawo—ikakhulukazi ngokusebenzisa I-Fifth Fleet— ngenhloso eshiwo yokuqinisekisa inkululeko yokuhamba ngemikhumbi nokuvimbela noma yimuphi umzamo wokuvinjelwa. Ngesikhathi seMpi ye-Iran-Iraq ngawo-1980, iWashington yayisivele ibonise ukuzimisela kwayo ukuphelezela amaloli nokuphendula ngempi ekuhlaselweni kwemikhumbi yezentengiselwano.
Esimweni sakamuva, esiphawulwe ukwanda kokungezwani phakathi I-United States, i-Israel ne-IranLo mfula usuphinde waba yindawo ebalulekile. Iziteleka ezibhekiswe ezikhungweni zenuzi zase-Iran, izenzo zempi eziwela umngcele, kanye nezinsongo zokubuyisana zenze i-Strait of Hormuz yaba yindaba esematheni futhi, okubaluleke kakhulu, yabonakala kubasebenzisi bemakethe yamandla.
I-China ingena kulesi sibalo njengomthengisi omkhulu wamandla. Ingumthengi oyinhloko we-Iranian crude futhi ingenye yezindawo ezinkulu kakhulu zokuthola uwoyela kanye ne-LNG eziwela lo msele. Ngakho-ke, iWashington icele iBeijing obala ukuthi Sebenzisa ithonya lakho ukuvimbela ukuvalwaBaphikisana ngokuthi ukuvimba kungaba “ukuzibulala ngokwezomnotho” kulabo abathembele kakhulu kulokho kugeleza, kuqala nge-Iran uqobo kanye namakhasimende ayo amakhulu ase-Asia.
I-Iran ingazama kanjani ukuvala iStrait of Hormuz
Omunye wemibuzo ephindaphindayo kunoma iyiphi inkinga esifundeni ukuthi kanjani, ngempela, Ingabe i-Iran ingayivimba le ndlela yokungena?Ochwepheshe bakhomba izinketho eziningana zamaqhinga. Enye yezindlela eziphumelela kakhulu kungaba ukusetshenziswa kwezimayini zasemanzini ezifakwe ezikebheni ezisheshayo noma ezikebheni ezingaphansi komhlaba emizileni yokuqondisa, okuphoqa izimoto ukuthi zime kuze kube yilapho indawo isisusiwe.
Ibutho lasolwandle elivamile lase-Iran, kanye namayunithi asolwandle avela I-Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)Futhi inezikebhe zokuqapha ezisheshayo ezihlome ngemicibisholo yokulwa nemikhumbi, imikhumbi engaphezulu, imikhumbi engaphansi kwamanzi, kanye nemikhumbi-ngwenya ekwazi ukuhlukumeza amathangi kawoyela nemikhumbi yezempi. Ukuhlasela okuqondile noma izinsongo ezithembekile kunganele ukuvimba izinkampani eziningi zokuthutha ngemikhumbi ukuthi zingangeni kule ndawo.
Kodwa-ke, lezi zindlela ezifanayo zizoba nomlingani wazo: Imikhumbi yempi emikhulu yase-Iran izoba yizinhloso ezibonakalayo Ezindizeni nasezicibini zase-US kanye nezizwe ezihlangene, lo mzila uzoba nzima kakhulu, kuyilapho izikebhe ezisheshayo nemikhumbi emincane kuzobhekana namandla aphezulu kakhulu kwezobuchwepheshe. Iningi labahlaziyi liyavuma ukuthi i-Iran ingaphazamisa kakhulu ithrafikhi okwesikhashana, kodwa futhi nokuthi ubumbano lwamazwe ngamazwe luzoba namandla okubuyisela ukudlula, mhlawumbe ngezindleko zokwanda okukhulu kwezempi.
Eqinisweni, ngasekupheleni kwawo-80, ngesikhathi "sempi yamathangi," i-United States yayisivele ithathe isinyathelo sokugcina umzila uvulekile, iphinda ifake amafulegi emikhumbi yaseKuwait futhi ihlela amaloli ahlomile. Lokhu okuhlangenwe nakho kuqinisa umbono wokuthi Ukuvalwa okuphelele nokuthatha isikhathi eside akukwazi ukuqhubeka. e-Iran, kokubili kwezempi nakwezomnotho, uma sibheka ukuthi izwe ngokwalo lidinga ukuthumela kwamanye amazwe imikhiqizo kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye namandla ukuze lizixhase.
Yingakho ochwepheshe abaningi - kanye namazwi ngaphakathi kwesifunda ngokwaso - bephikisana ngokuthi iTehran "ineningi okufanele ililahle kunokuzuza" ekuvinjelweni isikhathi eside, njengoba ibeka engcupheni yokuhlukanisa omakhelwane bayo abakhiqizayo kanye nomthengi wayo oyinhloko, iChina, kanye nokuvusa impendulo yezempi yamazwe ngamazwe okunzima ukuyilawula.
Umthelela womhlaba wonke wokuvalwa noma ukuphazamiseka komgwaqo
Lapho isimo se- ukuvalwa okusebenzayo kweStrait of HormuzUkuvumelana phakathi kwabahlaziyi ukuthi sizobe sibhekene nokuphazamiseka okungakaze kubonwe emakethe yamandla ezikhathini zanamuhla. Ukuqhathaniswa nempi yase-Ukraine kufanekisa kakhulu: ukuhlasela kweRussia kwabeka cishe amabhareli ayizigidi ezintathu ngosuku (mb/d) kawoyela ongahluziwe engozini, okwanyusa intengo yomgqomo ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-50 emavikini ambalwa nje. Ukuphazamiseka eStrait of Hormuz kungathinta kufika ku-20 mb/d.
Empikiswaneni yamuva nje, ukuvinjelwa komgwaqo kwaholela ekutheni I-Brent crude izodlula u-$100 ngebhareliFuthi uma uwoyela ongahluziwe wase-US ungafinyelela amazinga afanayo, lokho kuzobangela ukukhuphuka kwamandla futhi kubeke ingcindezi ephezulu emananini ezokuthutha, ugesi, kanye, ngenxa yalokho, izimpahla eziningi ezisetshenziswayo. Njengoba kusengozini amabhareli ayizigidi ezingama-20 ngosuku, ingozi yokwenyuka kwentengo okuqhubekayo isobala.
Imiphumela ngeke ifane. Amazwe afana nalawa IShayina, iNdiya, iJapan, noma iNingizimu Korea —okuncike kakhulu ku-oyela ongahluziwe ofika usuka eGulf ngeStrait of Hormuz—uzothinteka kakhulu. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2024 cishe u-84% wamafutha angahluziwe kanye ne-condensate transit eyayidlula kule strait yayihloselwe izimakethe zase-Asia, futhi cishe u-83% we-LNG nawo waya kuleso sifunda.
Iminotho esafufusa encike kakhulu ku-LNG, njenge IBangladesh, iNdiya, noma iPakistanBasengozini enkulu. Ngo-2025, cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zokungenisa kwabo igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi bawela iStrait of Hormuz. Emazweni afana neBangladesh nePakistan, igesi ikhiqiza cishe u-50% no-25% wokukhiqizwa kukagesi ngokulandelana, ngakho-ke ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo kungaholela ekunqamukeni kukagesi, ukwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo yamandla, kanye nokuphazamiseka komphakathi.
Umthelela ngeke ukhawulelwe emkhakheni wamandla. umanyolo we-nitrogenAmazwe okukhiqizwa kwawo eGulf athembele kakhulu kugesi wemvelo azobona uchungechunge lwawo lokuhlinzeka lucindezeleka. Lokhu kuzokwandisa izindleko zezinto zokulima futhi kufake ingcindezi emananini okudla, okungenzeka kubangele ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki emazweni athembele kakhulu ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe.
Ngisho noma kwenzeka ukuphazamiseka okuncane, lapho izinkampani zokuthumela izimpahla zinquma ukuphambukisa imikhumbi noma lapho izinkampani zomshuwalense zihoxisa ukumbozwa okujwayelekile bese zisebenzisa izimali ezengeziwe zempi, imiphumela iyabonakala: ukutholakala kwemikhumbi okunciphile, imizila emide edlula eCape of Good Hope, izindleko ezengeziwe zempahla kanye nokwanda okuvamile kokuguquguquka kwezimakethe zesikhathi esizayo.
Inkinga yakamuva: ukwanda kwezempi kanye nokusabela kwemakethe
Ekukhuphukeni okukhulu kwakamuva, okwaqala ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari 2026 kulandela imisebenzi yezempi yase-US kanye neyase-Israel i-Epic Fury kanye ne-Roaring Lion bebhekene nezinhloso zase-Iran, i-Strait of Hormuz kubuyiselwe endaweni eyinhloko ye-alamu yomhlaba wonkeUkuziphindiselela kwe-Iran kwakuhlanganisa nokuhlaselwa kwezikhungo kanye nezinhloso eQatar, e-UAE, eKuwait, eBahrain, naseSaudi Arabia.
Phakathi kukaMashi 1 noMashi 2026, okungenani Imikhumbi emithathu yezentengiselwano yonakele e-strait ngenxa yemithelela yezibhamu noma ukuqhuma okusolwayo, ngokusho kwe-UK Maritime Operations Centre (UKMTO). NgoMashi 1, ukugeleza kukawoyela kule ndawo kwase kwehle ngo-86% uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso sonyaka, njengoba kunamathangi angaphezu kuka-700 ayemi emgqeni.
Amabutho ase-Iran afika ngisho nasekumemezeleni ukuthi lo msele “uvaliwe,” exwayisa ngokuthi ngeke avumele imikhumbi exhumene ne-United States noma i-Israel idlule futhi ithi inawo. "ukulawula okuphelele" komhubheNakuba kamuva bacacisa ukuthi kwakungesona ukuvalwa okusemthethweni okujwayelekile, umbono wengozi wawusuvele wanele ukushintsha kakhulu ukusebenza kwezentengiselwano.
Izinkampani ezinkulu zokuthumela izimpahla zasabela ngokushesha. Izinkampani ezifana I-Maersk, i-Hapag-Lloyd noma i-MSC Bamemezela ukumiswa okwesikhashana kwezinto zokuhamba ngeStrait of Hormuz, bayala imikhumbi yabo ukuthi iye ezindaweni eziphephile, futhi baqala ukushintsha indlela yemikhumbi ngeCape of Good Hope. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinkampani zomshuwalense zasolwandle zabuyekeza noma zahoxisa ukumbozwa okujwayelekile kwendawo, zakhuphula amaphrimiyamu emazingeni engozi yesikhathi sempi.
Umphumela waba ukwenyuka okusheshayo ezimakethe: intengo ye I-Brent crude ikhuphuke cishe ngo-13%. Emihlanganweni yokuqala ngoMashi 2, amanani kaphethiloli emvelo eYurophu akhuphuke cishe ngo-24%. Nakuba okunye kwalokho kwanda kwakungenxa yokwesaba kwasekuqaleni, ukuntuleka kombono ocacile wokunciphisa imikhawulo kwagcina amanani esezingeni eliphezulu.
Ngisho nesimemezelo esihlanganisiwe samalungu amaningana e-OPEC+ — okuhlanganisa iSaudi Arabia, iRussia, i-Iraq, i-UAE, iKuwait, iKazakhstan, i-Algeria, kanye ne-Oman — esinikelayo khuphula umkhiqizo Izinyathelo ezithathiwe zokuqinisa imakethe azanele ukuthulisa abatshalizimali. Isizathu silula: uwoyela ongahluziwe owengeziwe ungafakwa emakethe, kodwa uma imikhumbi ingakwazi ukuhamba ngendlela evamile ngeStrait of Hormuz, ingxenye enkulu yalowo mafutha izohlala ivaleleke esifundeni.
Indima yeShayina kanye namathuba okunciphisa ukukhula kwezomnotho
Kulesi simo esinzima, I-China iphuma njengomdlali othatha izinqumoAkugcini nje ngokuba ngumthengisi omkhulu kunabo bonke emhlabeni kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye nomunye wabathengi abakhulu bakawoyela wase-Iran, kodwa futhi ibilokhu iqinisa indima yayo njengomlamuleli ezingxabanweni zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi iminyaka eminingi. Ukuvalwa isikhathi eside kwalo msele kuphambene ngqo nezintshisekelo zayo njengamandla amakhulu kanye namandla ezentengiselwano.
Ngakho-ke, izingxoxo zaseShayina ziphinde zanxusa wonke amaqembu ukuthi ukunciphisa ukungezwani, ukuqinisekisa ukuphepha kokuhamba nokugwema umthelela omkhulu emnothweni womhlaba wonkeOkwamanje, abezindaba abasemthethweni eBeijing bagxeke ukubandakanyeka kwezempi zase-US, bethi kwenza kube nzima futhi kuphazamise ukuzinza kwesifunda.
Ukuhlaziya okuqaphile kakhulu kucabangela izimo ezimbili eziyinhloko. Kokuqala, ukwehla okusheshayo kwezomnotho—phakathi kwamasonto ambalwa—kungavumela ukwenza ithrafikhi ibe ngokwejwayelekile kancane kancaneukunciphisa amaphrimiyamu obungozi nokubuyisela amanani kagesi emazingeni alawuleka kalula. Umonakalo ubuyoba mkhulu, kodwa ube nesikhathi esilinganiselwe.
Esimweni sesibili, uma ukungazinzi kuthatha inyanga eyodwa kuya kweziyisithupha noma ngaphezulu, imiphumela ingaba nzulu kakhulu: amanani aphezulu kawoyela negesi esikhathini eside, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo okusabalele emikhakheni eminingi yezimboni, ikakhulukazi ingcindezi enamandla kwezomnotho ezisathuthuka ezincike ekuthengweni kwamandla, kanye nokungezwani komphakathi okuhlobene nezindleko zokuphila.
Okwamanje, i-Iran izoqhubeka nokubheka ukulawulwa kwalolu daka njengento enamandla, noma iyingozi, ecebeni layo lesifunda, kuyilapho i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo bezoqhubeka nokuthethelela ukuba khona kwabo emikhumbini egameni lenkululeko yokuhamba. Ibhalansi ibuthakathaka, futhi noma yikuphi ukuphambuka kungaholela ekuphazamisekeni okwengeziwe kohlelo lwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Ngamafuphi, iStrait of Hormuz ifinyeza ngamakhilomitha ambalwa konke okwenza i-geopolitics yanamuhla ibe yinkimbinkimbi kangaka: indawo encane yezwe, ukuqoqwa okukhulu kwemithombo yamandla, ukuminyana okukhulu kwezimoto, kanye nokuhlangana njalo kwezintshisekelo phakathi kwamandla esifunda nawomhlaba wonke.Noma yini eyenzeka emanzini ayo, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ibukeka kanjani ngobuchwepheshe noma ikude kangakanani, izoqhubeka nokuba nethonya eliqondile kodwa elithule emananini kaphethiloli, izikweletu zikagesi, kanye nokuzinza komnotho kwamazwe kuwo wonke amazwekazi.
