La Indida kaNewcomb Kungenye yalezo zivivinyo zokucabanga eziqala njengomdlalo bese zigcina zikuthinte kakhulu. Akugcini nje ngokubuza ukuthi Sikhululekile ngempela uma sinqumaKodwa futhi kuguqula ukuqonda kwethu ngokunengqondo, isu, kanye nengqondo evamile kube yinto ebaluleke kakhulu. Labo abahlola ngokujulile le nkinga bavame ukuthola ukuthi ukuthi izinqumo zenziwa kanjani noma kungani zazingaqondakali kahle.
Uma ucabanga lokho Izinqumo zakho zihlale zingezakho futhi zizimele.Le nkinga ingakwenza ucabange kabusha ngezinto. Awudingi unkulunkulu, idemoni, noma ubuhlakani obuphezulu obuhlola engqondweni yakho ukuze uzizwe unesiyezi: ukucabanga nje ngesibikezelo esicishe sibe siphelele sokuziphatha kwakho kwanele ukuphakamisa ukungabaza mayelana inkululeko yokuzikhethela, ukuzimisela, kanye nokucabanga okhetha ngayo nsuku zonke.
I-Newcomb Paradox: Amabhokisi amabili kanye nesibikezeli esingenaphutha
Ingqikithi yokuhlolwa ilula kakhulu: Wena, amabhokisi amabili, kanye nesidalwa esikwazi ukubikezela ukuthi uzokwenzaniNoma kunjalo, ubulula obusobala bufihla iphazili ebilokhu ihlukanisa izazi zefilosofi, izazi zezibalo, kanye nabantu abavamile cishe phakathi amashumi eminyaka.
Zicabange ungena ekamelweni bese uthola amabhokisi amabili etafuleniEnye yazo icacile, futhi ungabona ngokucacile ukuthi iqukethe amayunithi ayi-1.000 emali (ama-euro, amadola, noma yini oyifunayo). Enye ayibonakali. Awunawo umbono wokuthi kukhonani ngaphakathi.Uyazi kuphela umthetho womdlalo:
- Ibhokisi A (elingacacile)Ingaqukatha ama-euro ayi-1.000.000 noma ingabi nalutho nhlobo.
- Ibhokisi B (elibonakalayo): iqukethe ama-euro ayi-1.000 ngenani eliqinisekisiwe.
Ukukhetha kwakho kulula kakhulu, kodwa kunezimbalwa: Ungathatha ibhokisi A kuphela noma okunye Thatha kokubili, u-A no-BNgamanye amazwi, isinyathelo esiyingozi noma isinyathelo esibonakala siphephile futhi sinomgomo omkhulu ngesikhathi esisodwa.
Okwenza izinto zibe nzima kakhulu ukuba khona kwe-ejenti ekhethekile: I-Omega, isidalwa (noma i-supercomputer) esinekhono elicishe liphelele lokubikezelaNgaphambi kokuba ungene ekamelweni, lo mbikezeli usehlaziye ubuntu bakho, izindlela zakho zokuziphatha, kanye nesitayela sakho sokwenza izinqumo ezimweni ezifanayo, futhi usebikezele ngalokho ozokukhetha.
Umthetho yilo: Uma u-Omega ebikezela ukuthi uzothatha ibhokisi A kuphela, ifake ama-euro ayi-1.000.000 ngaphakathi kuyo. Uma ebebikezela ukuthi uzothatha amabhokisi womabiliUshiye ibhokisi A lingenalutho. Uyazi zonke lezi zimo: uyazi ukuthi Ngokomlando, i-Omega ayikaze yehluleke.Noma okungenani yilokho abakuqinisekisayo, nokuthi konke kunqunywa ngaphambi kokuthi ungene.
Ngakho-ke isikhathi seqiniso siyafika: Ingabe ukhetha ibhokisi elingacacile kuphela noma uthatha kokubili? Kusukela lapha, ukungezwani kuyavuleka, kuhlukanise labo ababhekana nale mpikiswano ngamaqembu amabili aphikisanayo.
Imigqa emibili yokucabanga ephikisanayo: ukubusa vs. ukusetshenziswa okulindelekile
Okwenza le nkinga iphazamise kangaka akukhona nje ukuhlelwa kwesiteji, kodwa yilokho Kunezimpikiswano ezimbili ezibonakala zinengqondo eziholela ezinqumweni eziphikisanayo.Asikhulumi ngemibono engacacile, kodwa ngezimiso ezisemthethweni zenkolelo-mbono yesinqumo, kulokhu, ezingqubuzana ngqo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi kukhona okuthiwa isimiso sokubusaLokhu kucabanga kuvela emcabangweni oqondakala kalula: uma unquma, okuqukethwe yibhokisi A sekuvele kulungisiwe, ngoba U-Omega wenza isibikezelo sakhe futhi wathatha isinyathelo kusengaphambili.Ayikho indlela isinqumo sakho samanje esingashintsha ngayo okwenzekile esikhathini esidlule.
Uma isigidi singaphakathi kwebhokisi A, Ukuthatha amabhokisi womabili kungakunika ama-euro ayi-1.001.000Nakuba ukukhetha u-A kuphela kungakushiya “wedwa” nesigidi. Uma, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ibhokisi u-A lingenalutho, ukuthatha womabili amabhokisi kungakuwina ama-euro ayi-1.000, uma kuqhathaniswa no-0 uma ukhetha u-A kuphela. Kuwo womabili amagatsha esihlahla esingenzeka, Ukuthatha amabhokisi womabili kuthuthukisa noma kulinganisa umphumela kokuthatha ibhokisi elingacacile kuphela. Ngaphansi kwale ngqiqo, ukukhetha okuyinhloko kusobala.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi kuvela ukukhulisa ukusetshenziswa okulindelekile, igugu eliyinhloko lenkolelo-mbono yesinqumo esijwayelekile. Le ndlela icabangela ukuthi I-Omega cishe ihlale ilungileNgokusho kwencazelo yokuhlolwa, lokhu kuthembeka okukhulu kwethula ubudlelwano obukhulu phakathi kokukhetha kwakho nalokho okusebhokisini A.
Uma ukhetha ibhokisi elingacaci kuphela, ulwazi oludlule lusikisela ukuthi Isibikezeli esicishe siqiniseke sasilindele lokho kuziphatha Ngakho-ke, wafaka isigidi ngaphakathi. Uma unquma ukuthatha kokubili, Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi u-Omega wakubona kusengaphambili. futhi ushiye ibhokisi A lingenalutho, okukushiya une-€1.000 ebonakalayo. Uma ubheka ngale ndlela, ukuze wandise inzuzo oyilindele, into enengqondo okufanele uyenze kungaba zibophezele ebhokisini elilodwa, noma kungase kubonakale sengathi "uyayeka" imali eqinisekisiwe.
Zombili izindlela zokucabanga zibonakala zingenaphutha, kodwa zihlukile komunye nomunye. Noma ungomunye walabo abacabanga ukuthi kusobala ukuthatha amabhokisi womabili, noma ungomunye walabo abacabanga ukuthi kusobala ukuthatha elilodwa elingabonakali.Futhi okumangalisayo ukuthi izinhlolovo kanye nokuhlolwa okungakahleleki kubonisa ukuthi, kokubili phakathi kochwepheshe kanye nomphakathi jikelele, abantu bahlukene cishe ngokulinganayo, beqiniseka ukuthi enye ingxenye iyazikhohlisa.
Inkululeko yokuzikhethela, ukuba nomthelela, kanye nokuthi kungani inkinga isilahla kangaka
Ukungakhululeki okubangelwa yi-paradox kaNewcomb kudlulela ngalé kombuzo wemali eqanjiwe. Empeleni, Kuyabuza ukuthi siqonda kanjani ubudlelwano phakathi kwezinqumo zethu, okwedlule, kanye nekusasa.Yilapho inhlansi yefilosofi iqala khona.
Ngokwazi kwethu sikholelwa ukuthi Lokho esikwenzayo manje akukwazi ukushintsha lokho osekwenzekile kakadeUma i-Omega yenze isinqumo sayo izolo, ukukhetha kwethu kwamanje akukwazi "ukubuyela emuva" ukushintsha okuqukethwe ebhokisini A. Lo mbono wesizathu sesikhathi esisodwa ugxile kakhulu emqondweni wethu ojwayelekile kanye nesayensi yakudala.
Kodwa, ngesikhathi esifanayo, lesi sitatimende sigcizelela ukuthi Isibikezelo sika-Omega sicishe siphelele.Lokho kusho ukuthi kunobudlelwano obuqinile phakathi kwalokho ozokwenza nalokho okusebhokisini kakade. Ngandlela thile, Indlela yakho yokwenza izinqumo "ixhumene" nokulungiselela kwakho umdlalo wangaphambiliniUma ukhetha ukusebenzisa i-akhawunti eyodwa kuphela, uvame ukugcina unesigidi; uma ukhetha kokubili, ugcina une-euro eyi-1.000.
Lokhu kuhlangana okuphezulu kwenza abaningi bazizwe sengathi, lapho bekhetha, Empeleni bakhetha nokuqukethwenoma ngabe kungaqondile. Hhayi ngomqondo wokushintsha okwedlule, kodwa ngomqondo wokuthi isu elingcono kakhulu ukuziphatha njengomuntu obikezela izinto ezizokwenzeka njalo. Ukungezwani phakathi imbangela ebonakalayo kanye nobufakazi bezibalo Kungenye yezingqinamba ezinkulu zenkinga.
Ngakho-ke, impikiswano ihlotshaniswa nezingxoxo zakudala mayelana Ukuzimisela kanye nenkululeko yokuzikhethelaUma kukhona isibikezelo esikwazi ukubikezela izinqumo zakho ngokunemba okuphelele, kuphakamisa ukusola ukuthi Mhlawumbe umuzwa wakho wenkululeko uyinto ekhohlisayo ngokwengxenye.Izinqumo zakho zibonakala zilandela umkhondo ongabhalwa kakade kumodeli, ngisho nangaphambi kokuba uziqaphele.
Ezinye izazi zefilosofi ziye zaze zaphakamisa ukuthi isibikezeli esiphelele, noma okulingana nokusebenza kwe-a umshini wesikhathi okukhombisa ikusasaLokhu kungasho ukuguqula imbangela: izenzo zakho zesikhathi esizayo "zingabangela" isibikezelo sesikhathi esidlule. Abanye bakhetha ukufinyelela esiphethweni esiqine kakhulu futhi bagomele ukuthi Akunakwenzeka ukwazi ikusasa ngalelo zinga lokunemba.ngokuqondile ukugwema izihibe eziyimbangela eziphikisanayo.
Izikole ezimbili eziphikisanayo zemicabango: inkolelo-mbono yesinqumo sobufakazi vs inkolelo-mbono yesinqumo esiyimbangela
Ingxoxo ngokuthi yini “enengqondo” okufanele yenziwe ku-Newcomb’s paradox ihlanganiswe yaba yizindlela ezimbili ezinkulu ngaphakathi kwethiyori yezinqumo: abafakazi kanye nababangelaUhlangothi ngalunye lukholelwa ukuthi lulungile... futhi abaningi bacabanga ukuthi umbono ophikisanayo, kalula nje, uyiphutha lomqondo.
La inkolelo-mbono yesinqumo sobufakazi uthi into efanele okufanele yenziwe khetha ibhokisi elingacacile kuphelaUmqondo wayo oyinhloko ukuthi izinqumo zakho kufanele zisekelwe ebufakazini obutholakalayo mayelana nokuthi izenzo zakho zihlobene kanjani nemiphumela. Lapha, ubufakazi obuhle kakhulu obusekelwe ebufakazini buthi Labo abathatha ibhokisi A kuphela bavame ukugcina benesigidingoba isibikezeli cishe ngaso sonke isikhathi sinembile.
Kumuntu oqinisekisa ubufakazi, ukukhetha kwakho kusebenza njengohlobo "lwesibonakaliso" mayelana nesimo somhlaba: Uma unquma ukuba yibhokisi elilodwa, lokho kuwubufakazi obuqinile ukuthi i-ocracy yabikezela into efanayo futhi yafaka isigidi ebhokisini. Akudingeki uqonde ukusebenza kwangaphakathi kwe-Omega; mane nje uthathe umlando wayo wempumelelo ngokungathi sína bese ubuyekeza izinkolelo zakho ngendlela ye-Bayesian.
Emseleni ophambene kukhona inkolelo-mbono yesinqumo esiyimbangelaokuyinto eholela ebhalansini thatha amabhokisi womabiliAma-Causalists agcizelela ukuthi ukuhluzeka kwengqondo kufanele kuqondiswe umthelela wezenzo zakho: Isinqumo sakho samanje singathonya kuphela lokho okulandelayohhayi kulokho osekunqunywe yisibikezeli.
Kusukela kulo mbono, uma umi phambi kwamabhokisi, okuqukethwe kwesitsha esingacacile sekuvele kutholakaleIqhinga lakho alishintshi lutho olwenziwa yi-Omega, ngakho-ke udinga nje ukucabanga ukuthi izinketho zakho ezahlukene zithinta kanjani umvuzo wakho kuzo zonke "isimo somhlaba" esingaba khona. Njengoba, kunoma yisiphi sazo, Ukuthatha amabhokisi womabili kukushiya ungcono noma ufana Esikhundleni sokuthatha eyodwa kuphela, ithiyori yezimbangela ikhetha amabhokisi amabili njengenketho enengqondo.
Lokhu kungqubuzana phakathi ubudlelwano bobufakazi kanye nobudlelwano bembangela Lokhu kubangele ukuqhuma kwezihloko eziningi, izincwadi, kanye nezingxoxo. Ababhali abanjengoDavid Lewis bazivumelanise nendlela yokwenza imbangela, kanti abanye bahlole ukuhlukahluka kobufakazi noma bazama ukuvumelanisa imibono yomibili. Isisekelo salokhu umbuzo obanzi: Sisho ukuthini ngempela uma sithi “senza isinqumo esinengqondo”?
Ukwehluka, izandiso, kanye nokuguquka okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukudideka
Njengoba kuvame ukuba njalo ngezinkinga ezinhle zefilosofi, i-Newcomb's paradox idale umndeni wonke wezinguqulo ezihlukile zenzelwe ukuhlola ukuqonda kwethu. Ezinye zishintsha ukuthembeka kwesibikezeli, ezinye zengeza izendlalelo ezibonakalayo noma ze-quantum, kanti ezinye zihlola izimo ezinemijikelezo eminingi noma ulwazi olwengeziwe.
Ukuguqulwa okuvamile kuhilela phumula ukuphelela kwe-oracleCabanga ukuthi esikhundleni sokuba neqiniso ngo-100% wesikhathi, i-Omega inokunemba okuphezulu kakhulu kodwa ayiyona into engalungile: isibonelo, u-99%. Kulesi simo, ukubalwa kokusetshenziswa okulindelekile kuba nomqondo obanzi: ngokusho kwamathuba aqondile okuphumelela, ungashintsha ukuthi yiliphi isu elinikeza inani eliphakeme kakhulu elilindelekile.
Kodwa-ke, abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi le nguqulo igwema inhliziyo yenkinga. I-paradox yokuqala iyathakazelisa ngoba Kuyisibikezeli esiphelele cisheLokhu kusiphoqa ukuthi sibhekane nokungqubuzana phakathi kwezimiso ezimbili zokucabanga ngaphandle kokukwazi "ukuphunyuka" ngokusebenzisa ithuba lokuphutha.
Esinye isici esibangela ukuphambuka yilokho isitsha sengilaziKule nguqulo, ibhokisi "elivaliwe" liba sobala: ungakwazi Hlola ukuthi iqukethe isigidi noma ayinalutho. ngaphambi kokunquma. Umbuzo uwukuthi umdlali onengqondo kufanele enzeni uma ebhekene nale mbiza ebonakalayo kanye nebhokisi eliqukethe ama-euro ayi-1.000.
Uma ubona isigidi esitsheni, isilingo esisheshayo siwukuthi Thatha amabhokisi womabili uhambe nama-euro ayi-1.001.000Lokhu kubonakala kuphikisana nokungapheleli okucatshangwayo kombikezeli. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma ubona i-urn engenalutho, ungase usabele ngendlela "yokuvukela", uthathe i-urn kuphela ukufakazela ukuthi umdlalo uyinkohliso, noma uzigcinele ibhokisi elincane ngaphandle kokusebenza okungokoqobo. Lokhu kusabela kubonakala kungavumelani ne-oracle engasoze yehluleke, abanye abaye bayihumusha ngokuthi ubufakazi bokuthi ukwazi ikusasa akunakwenzeka nhlobo noma okungenani ingaphansi kwemingcele enzima.
Kukhona futhi amalungiselelo afakwa ku-cocktail shaker Ukuhamba kwesikhathi kanye ne-quantum mechanicsNgokombono wokuhamba kwesikhathi, inkinga ikhumbuza izinto ezingavamile eziphikisanayo zokubuyela emuva kwesikhathi, njengomhambi wesikhathi oshintsha isikhathi esidlule ngendlela evimbela uhambo lwakhe. Abanye baphakamise izimiso zokuthi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo, njengekaNovikov, lapho indawo yonke "ihlangana khona" ukuze igweme izihibe eziziphikisayo.
Ngamagama e-quantum, kuphakanyiswe ukufaniswa ne- Ikati lika-schrödingerKuze kube yilapho wenza isinqumo sakho, okuqukethwe kwebhokisi elingacacile kuhlala kusesimweni sokufana phakathi kokuthi "kugcwele" nokuthi "akunalutho." Kuphela uma ukhetha lapho umsebenzi wegagasi "uyawa" bese umphumela uba ozinzile, ngaleyo ndlela kuvikelwe izinga lokuhambisana phakathi kwentando yokuzikhethela kanye nokuxhumana okungeyona eyakudala. Ukufundwa okwengeziwe, okuphefumulelwe yi ukuchazwa kwemihlaba eminingiBacabanga ukuthi isenzo se-oracle senza kube namagatsha amabili esikhathi afanayo: ebhokisini elilodwa kukhona isigidi, kwelinye alikho, futhi ukuqonda kwakho kuvumelana nje nenye yalezo zigeleza.
Ukuphindaphinda, inkolelo-mbono yomdlalo, kanye nokulingana kwamasu
I-paradox kaNewcomb nayo ihlaziywe ngokombono we- imidlalo ithiyoriikakhulukazi uma kufakwe ngaphakathi izimo eziphindaphindwayo nezikhunjulwayoKulezi zinguqulo, ukungqubuzana akusekho phakathi kwakho namabhokisi athile angaguquki, kodwa phakathi "kwabadlali" ababili: umbikezeli kanye nomuntu obambe iqhaza.
Ake sithi isazi semilingo asinalo ulwazi lwemilingo ngekusasa, kodwa Funda ekuziphatheni kwakho emizuliswaneni emininganaIngase ingaboni ikusasa, kodwa inezibalo zangaphambilini, iyazi ukuthi ufundile ngale nkinga noma ukuthi ungowephrofayili ethile yengqondo, futhi ilungisa izibikezelo zayo ukuze ikhulise izinga layo lempumelelo.
Kulowo mongo, umdlalo ungafundwa ngokubheka Ukulingana kwe-NashOkusho ukuthi, inhlanganisela yamasu lapho kungekho mdlali onesisusa sokushintsha yedwa. Isibonelo, ukulingana okukodwa kungaba ukuthi Uhlala ukhetha womabili amabhokisi futhi isibikezeli silindele lokhongokugcwalisa ibhokisi elibonakalayo kuphela: uwina i-1.000 kumdlalo ngamunye, futhi i-oracle ihlala ilungile.
Esinye ibhalansi ekhangayo kakhulu kuwe, kungaba ukuthi khetha ibhokisi elingacacile njalo kuphela Futhi umbikezeli ulungisa isu lakhe ukuze afake isigidi kulo ngokuhlelekile: uwina u-1.000.000 isikhathi ngasinye futhi ugcina umugqa wakhe ophelele. Zombili lezi zilinganiso zizinzile ngomqondo we-Nash, kodwa ngokwemvelo ungathanda ukusuka kweyokuqala uye kweyesibili.
Inkinga ukuthi ungamenza kanjani umuntu obikezela izinto ukuthi "athembe" ukuthi uzoshintsha indlela yakho yokuziphatha futhi ungamkhapheli emzuliswaneni othize ngokuthatha womabili amabhokisi ngemuva kokufaka isigidi. Yilapho umqondo wokuthi ukuzibophezela okuthembekile, futhi kufundwe kabanzi ezimweni ezifana nokuvimbela izikhali zenuzi noma umdlalo odumile "wenkukhu" kumbono womdlalo.
Lolu hlobo lokuhlaziya luxhumanisa i-paradox kaNewcomb nezinkinga ezifana ne- inkinga yesiboshwaimidlalo yodumo kanye nezindlela zokubambisana. Kuboniswa ukuthi, ngezinye izikhathi, Ukuba "uhlakaniphe kakhulu" esikhathini esifushane kungabiza kakhulu esikhathini esidenokuthi ukuqonda okunengqondo kuhlanganisa izici ezifana nokwethembeka, idumela, kanye nekhono lokuzibophezela enkambweni yesenzo.
Kusukela kufilosofi kuya ebhizinisini: lokho okufundiswa yiNewcomb mayelana nesu kanye nokuphathwa
Kungase kubonakale sengathi konke lokhu kuhlale kuyindlela yokuzilibazisa enengqondo ngemali ecatshangelwayo, kodwa i-Newcomb's paradox inikeza Izifundo eziwusizo kakhulu emhlabeni wokuphatha kanye namasu ebhizinisiIzinqumo eziningi zangempela ziphinda, ngendlela eyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, ukungezwani phakathi kwenzuzo esheshayo kanye nombono wesikhathi eside obangelwa yilolu cwaningo.
Ukufana okucacile ukungqubuzana phakathi ukucabanga kwesikhashana kwesizathu kanye nokubikezela kanye nokucabanga okusekelwe edumeleniNgokuphathelene “namabhokisi amabili”, inhlangano ingaba matasa kakhulu “ngokubamba konke okubonwayo manje”, okungukuthi, ukukhipha inzuzo esheshayo, ukunciphisa izindleko, ukudela ikhwalithi noma ukushisa amaqembu ayo.
Indlela "yebhokisi elilodwa" ingabukeka kakhulu ukuthembela emphumeleni wesikhathi eside wezinqumo ezithile zamasuUkutshala imali ku-R&D, ukusimama, isiko lenkampani, noma uphawu, noma ngabe kusho ukudela inzuzo elula namuhla. Kuwukubheja enzuzweni yesikhathi esizayo elindelekile, ngokusekelwe ebufakazini bokuthi kanjani imakethe, amakhasimende, kanye nabalingani bayasabela kumaphethini athile okuziphatha.
Endaweni lapho izinkampani zine amathuluzi okuhlaziya okubikezelayo, idatha enkulu, kanye nobuhlakani bokwenziwaUmqondo we-Omega awuseyona inganekwane emsulwa. Ama-algorithm angabikezela isidingo, izinyathelo zokuncintisana, noma ukusabela kwabathengi ngokunemba okufana kakhulu ne-oracle yezibalo, yize kungaphelele.
Lokhu kuvula izinkinga ezithakazelisayo: uma imodeli yokubikezela ethembeke kakhulu ibonisa ukuthi umkhiqizo othile noma isu lokubiza amanani lizoletha inzuzo enkulu, Uyayethemba "ibhokisi elingabonakali" lokubikezela futhi uzibophezele kulo?Noma ulandela umuzwa wakho wokugcwalisa isinqumo ngasinye ngama-"euro ayi-1.000" amancane, yize imodeli isikisela ukuthi uzolahlekelwa yisigidi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi?
Ngaphezu kwalokho, le mpikiswano isisiza ukuba sicabange ngokubaluleka kokuthi Yakha idumela lokuba yisibikezeli esithembekile Ngasohlangothini lwenhlangano, njengoba nje i-Omega ithola amandla ngoba wonke umuntu ukholelwa ekunembeni kwayo, inkampani ebonisa ukuvumelana phakathi kwalokho ekuthembisayo nalokho ekwenzayo idala indawo lapho Izinqumo zeqembu lesithathu zivumelana kangcono nezintshisekelo zaboAmakhasimende, abaphakeli, kanye nabalawuli benza izinto belindele ukuziphatha okunesibopho, okungakhiqiza "izigidi" zenani eliqongelelwe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Imibono yezinqumo kanye namamodeli okucabanga asebenzayo
Ukuze siqonde ngokugcwele ukuthi kungani i-Newcomb's paradox inethonya kangaka, kuyasiza ukuyibeka ngaphakathi kohlaka olubanzi lwe- imibono yezinqumo kanye namamodeli okucabanga eziphathwa yizazi zezomnotho, izazi zefilosofi kanye nezazi zengqondo.
Ithiyori yesinqumo sakudala, eyathuthukiswa ababhali abafana no ULeonard Savage, ingxenye yomehluko phakathi “izenzo zakho” kanye “nesimo somhlaba”Kucatshangwa ukuthi ulawula okokuqala kodwa hhayi okwesibili, nokuthi umphumela wezinqumo zakho uvela ekuhlanganisweni kwalezi zici zombili. Kulowo mongo, into enengqondo okufanele uyenze ukunikeza amathuba ezimweni ezahlukene ezingenzeka kanye khetha isenzo esisebenzisa inani elilindelekile.
Le ndlela yokucabanga ibonakala ihlanzekile futhi inezibalo, kodwa i-Newcomb's impikiswano ikhombisa isibonelo lapho isenzo kanye nesimo somhlaba asisakwazi ukuzimela ngokusobalaLokho okunqumayo kuhlobene kakhulu nalokho okwenziwe yisibikezeli ngaphambili kangangokuthi ukuhlukaniswa okujwayelekile kuyafiphala, futhi kuvela izinkinga lapho usebenzisa izindlela zokupheka ezivamile.
Ezinye izindlela, njenge- Ukucabanga okulinganiselwe kukaHerbert SimonZisikhumbuza ukuthi amanxusa angempela enza izinqumo ngolwazi olungaphelele kanye namakhono okuqonda alinganiselwe. Ku-Newcomb, ukungacaci kwezindlela zangaphakathi ze-Omega kuphoqa umdlali ukuthi ukusebenzisa i-heuristics, intuition kanye nokubandlulula, into efana kakhulu nalokho esikwenzayo ekuphileni kwansuku zonke lapho sibhekene nokungaqiniseki kwangempela.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amamodeli afana ne- inkolelo-mbono engenzeka Umsebenzi kaKahneman noTversky ubonisa ukuthi sivame ukwenza ukusabela ngokweqile ekulahlekelweni okungenzeka kanye nokwazisa ngokweqile lokho okuphephileLokhu kusiza ukuchaza ukuthi kungani abaningi bekuthola kungenakwenzeka ukuyeka "inothi le-euro elibonakalayo elingu-1.000", yize bazi ukuthi, ngokwezibalo, labo abaphila ngaphandle kokubambelela kulelo nothi bagcina bengcono.
Kusukela ku-utilitarianism yakudala kuya ezinguqulweni zesimanje zokucabanga kwezinsimbi zomculo, i-paradox kaNewcomb isebenza njengesivivinyo sokucindezeleka: uma umbono wakho wesinqumo unikeza izimpendulo ezingahambisani nalokho okubheka njengo "ukuwina" emdlalweniMhlawumbe sidinga ukubuyekeza izincazelo noma sivume ukuthi umbono wethu wokucabanga unezici eziningi kakhulu kunalokho ebesikucabanga.
Inkululeko yokuzikhethela, ukuzimisela, kanye nemibono yefilosofi ehambisanayo
Ngale kwezomnotho kanye nethiyori yomdlalo, i-paradox ithinta ngqo impi yaphakade phakathi ukuzimisela kanye nenkululeko yokuzikhethelaKuye ngesimo sefilosofi osisebenzisayo, kungashintsha indlela ochaza ngayo ikhono lika-Omega kanye nencazelo yesinqumo sakho.
Kusuka a ukuzimisela kanzimaNgesitayela se-Hobbes noma i-Spinoza, zonke izinketho zakho zizonqunywa uchungechunge lwezimbangela zangaphambilini: izakhi zofuzo, indawo ezungezile, ulwazi, nemithetho yemvelo. Ngaphakathi kwalolu hlaka, umbikezeli onolwazi olwanele angase, ngokombono, lindela izenzo zakho ngaphandle kwephuthaFuthi impikiswano kaNewcomb ingaba umfanekiso wokuthi inkululeko yokuzikhethela iwumuzwa ongaphansi kokuqonda komuntu kunokuba ibe namandla angokwemvelo.
El i-libetarianism Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umbono wefilosofi ugcizelela ukuthi unekhono langempela lokukhetha phakathi kwezinye izindlela ezingahambisani, ezinganqunywanga ngokuphelele yisikhathi esidlule. Kulabo abavumelana nalo mbono, umqondo wesibikezeli esiphelele ubonakala usolisa noma ungaqondani nhlobo, futhi bavame ukucabanga ukuthi i-paradox yembula ukulinganiselwa kwamamodeli ethu, hhayi inkululeko yethu enkulu kangako.
Phakathi kwalokhu kukhona ukuhambisanaLo mbono, osekelwa ababhali abanjengoHume noDaniel Dennett, uzama ukuhlanganisa i-determinism kanye nenkululeko ngokuchaza kabusha lokhu kokugcina ngokwezenzo ngokwezifiso nezizathu zomuntu, noma ngabe lezo zifiso zibangelwa yimbangela. Kusukela kulo mbono, Ungaba "ukhululekile" futhi ube ngumuntu oqagelekayo ngesikhathi esisodwaFuthi indima ka-Omega ingaba ngumfundi ochwepheshe wesayensi yakho yengqondo, hhayi ukukhansela i-ejensi yakho.
Imibono eminingi yamanje, njenge i-biological naturalism Imibono kaSearle, noma izindlela ezithile zobuntu, zisikisela ukuthi ingqondo nokwenza izinqumo kuyizinqubo eziyinkimbinkimbi zomzimba, ezisengozini yokwenziwa imodeli, ukulingiswa, noma ngisho nokuphindwa yizihlakaniphi zokwenziwa ezithuthukisiwe. Esikhathini esizayo esinjalo, dlala i-Newcomb nge-super AI ekwazi kangcono kunokuba uzazi wena Kungaba yinto engaphezu nje kwenganekwane yasephariji.
Kunoma ikuphi, i-paradox isebenza njengesibuko: Impendulo yakho kanye nempikiswano yakho kusho lukhulu ngendlela ocabanga ngayo ngenkululeko yakho.Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uzibona njengomuntu “ophula” izibikezelo, noma njengomuntu olandela umugqa okhulisa imiphumela, ingxoxo ikuphoqa ukuthi wenze imibono ecacile evame ukuhlala ingacacile.
Ekugcineni, i-Newcomb's paradox, enamabhokisi ayo, i-ocracy yayo, kanye nezigidi zayo ezicatshangelwayo, isebenza njengelabhorethri yengqondo lapho singahlola khona indlela esifuna ukuqonda ngayo ukuqonda kanye nokuzimela Ezweni lapho izibikezelo mayelana nokuziphatha kwethu ziya ngokuya zinembile, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ukhetha ibhokisi elilodwa noma amabili, okuthakazelisa ngempela yilokho okukuholele lapho nokuthi lokho kusho ukuthini ngendlela owenza ngayo izinqumo lapho izinto ziba zimbi kakhulu.
