Izimo zemvelo ezenzeka emhlabeni wethu zihlukahlukene kakhulu, ngaphandle kokungabaza esinye seziphepho ezigqama kakhulu yilanga, kodwa yiziphi lezi zenzakalo? Mhlawumbe uke wazibuza; Kulesi sihloko uzofunda konke mayelana iziphepho zelanga nokuthi zizokwenzeka nini.
Bayini?
Eyaziwa nangokuthi isiphepho se-geomagnetic noma Imvula yelanga, ibhekisela oshintsho lwesikhashana kumagnetosphere, lapho igagasi lomoya welanga lishayisana namandla kazibuthe omhlaba, ngenxa yomsebenzi welanga. Kulesi simo kungena ukusebenzisana kwamagnetism womhlaba nomoya welanga.
Kunezinye izimo zezulu ezihlotshaniswa ikakhulukazi neziphepho zelanga. Yingakho izehlakalo zezinhlayiya zelanga ezinamandla zikhiqizwa ukuvuza okubalulekile kwamandla kagesi noma ukuphazamiseka kwe-ionosphere okubangela izinkinga ngomsakazo ne-radar. Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nale miphumela, ungavakashela isihloko sethu ku imiphumela yeziphepho zelanga Emhlabeni. Kulo mongo, kungase futhi kuhlobane nezinye izimo zezulu ezingaba nomthelela kulezi zimo.
Isiphepho selanga noma isiphepho kazibuthe Okuyingozi kakhulu, okukhonjiswe njengomcimbi weCarrington, kwaqalwa ngonyaka we-1859 futhi kwabangela izinkinga ezindleleni zikazibuthe zikagesi kanye nama-auroras kuwo wonke umhlaba.
Zibangelwa yini?
ukuqonda Siyini isiphepho selanga?, lokhu kwenzeka ngesikhathi lapho umoya welanga, okhiqizwa ama- solar flare kanye ne-coronal mass ejections, unqamula amandla kazibuthe omhlaba.
Kusukela emzuzwini wokuqala wale nto, ikhiqiza ukukhanya kwelanga, kuyilapho kukhishwa inani elikhulu lemisebe kagesi phakathi nokubukeka kwayo, kusukela emisebeni ye-gamma kuya kumaza omsakazo. Ngalesi sikhathi, imisebe ihlasela umhlaba cishe emizuzwini eyi-8 noma ngaphezulu.
Ngenxa yalokhu, i-coronal mass ejection iyenzeka, lokhu kuyigagasi elakhiwe ngemisebe nomoya welanga okhululwa ukwakheka kwelanga. Lezi zenzakalo zingase zibe nemithelela ebanzi ehlobene nezinye izenzakalo zomkhathi.
Uma ifika phansi, ingalimaza amasekhethi kagesi, ama-transformer, nezinhlelo zokuxhumana. Iyakwazi futhi ukwenza buthaka okwesikhashana amandla kazibuthe oMhlaba. Ukuze uqonde kangcono lesi simo, sikumema ukuthi ufunde mayelana izenzakalo zemeteorological ezihlobene.
Imiphumela
Iziphepho zelanga ezinobukhulu obukhulu zingamisa amandla kagesi emhlabeni wonke, kuze kudingeke ukuthi kushintshwe inqubo yokufaka izintambo ukuze kube nokukhanya futhi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kungakhinyabeza ukuxhumana futhi kuphule amasathelayithi, njengalawo amasathelayithi e-Mars futhi kubangele umonakalo omkhulu ezintweni ezisetshenziswayo zikagesi ezihlukahlukene, nakho kungaba yingozi kosomkhathi emsebenzini othile kanye nakubagibeli bezindiza endizela phezulu. Funda kabanzi ngokubaluleka kokuxhumana esihlokweni sethu esithi I-Aurora borealis, njengoba kungase kube nokuxhumana okuthakazelisayo phakathi kwalawa ma-aurora neziphepho zelanga.
Kuzokwenzekani uma kwenzeka esinye isiphepho selanga?
Ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba 1859, isibhakabhaka sasigcwele ukukhanya okunamandla nokukhazimulayo okwakubonakala kuhlanganisa yonke imibala yemvelo. Ngokwakho lokhu kwakungeyona into engavamile, kwakwaziwa ngokuthi isenzakalo esihle sasezulwini se-aurora.
Okukhethekile kwakuhlala kulezo sibhakabhaka esinezimvula ezifinyelela kuma-latitudes ezivamise ukumelana nokukhanya kwazo: njenge-Cuba, i-Hawaii, i-Colombia, i-China, i-Japan.
Kuthiwa ukukhanya kwakunamandla kangangokuthi abavukuzi baseRocky Mountains baphuze ikhofi labo lasekuseni becabanga ukuthi lolo suku lase linyukile kakade kuyilapho izinqubo ze-telegraphic zaseNyakatho Melika neYurophu zithule.
Izazi zezinkanyezi ezimbili eziyizimfundamakhwela, amaNgisi, okuthiwa uRichard Carrington kanye noRichard Hodgson, bathola ukuthi lo mcimbi ubuyisiphepho esinamandla elanga, futhi kusukela ngo-1859, lesi sigameko besaziwa ngokuthi umcimbi waseCarrington.
Njengamanje kuseyiziphepho ezinamandla kakhulu ze-geomagnetic ezibangelwa umsebenzi welanga owake waqoshwa.
Umcimbi waseCarrington ubulokhu usezingqondweni zososayensi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, uphakamisa ukungabaza okuthile ngalesi sigameko. Ukuze uthole umbono obanzi ngezinhlekelele zemvelo, ungavakashela isihloko sethu esithi izinhlekelele zemvelo, okungaba nomthelela omkhulu emphakathini.
Esokuqala sisekelwe emiphumeleni isiphepho selanga salolu hlobo esingaba nayo ohlelweni lukagesi oluzungeza iplanethi yethu namuhla futhi sinquma ukuphila kwethu kusukela ekuqaleni kosuku olulodwa kuya ekuqaleni kolunye.
Ukuhlaziywa kwenkampani yomshwalense i-Lloyds kuhlanganisa ukuthi intengo yokulahlekelwa, uma kwenzeka isenzakalo esisha e-United States, ingadlula amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-2,5 ngokuphazamiseka kwenethiwekhi yayo kagesi, lokhu kungathatha iminyaka emibili ukulungisa.
Amamodeli Amasha Ezibalo
Kukhona ucwaningo lwesayensi olwenziwa eminyakeni engu-8 edlule, okubonisa ukuthi kungenzeka okuncane (+ -10%) ukuthi isiphepho selanga esinobukhulu obufanayo naso ngo-1859 singenzeka. Lokhu kunqunywe nguSayensi uPeter Riley, owafunda incwadi umsebenzi welanga wonyaka.
Imodeli yakamuva yezibalo, esanda kushicilelwa kujenali Imibiko Yesayensi, icindezela lokhu okungenzeka kube cishe ku-2%. Lokhu kuhlaziya kuhlobene ne-.
Abadali bayo, u-Davis Morriña, Isabel Serra, Pete Puig kanye no-Álvaro Coral, abacwaningi base-Autonomous University of Barcelona (CRM) Center for Mathematical Research kanye ne-Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics, basebenzisa izibalo ukuze baqonde ukuziphatha okubonakalayo nokunephutha kwendawo yonke.
Bamemezele lokhu okulandelayo:
"Umsebenzi wethu ukuzama ukuqonda ukweqisa ukufaka amamodeli wokubikezela."
Ukweqisa njalo ngomzuzu kungamaphuzu lapho amamodeli okunquma, ezibalo noma ngokomzimba, ehlulekile ngandlela thize, kodwa futhi amamodeli wezibalo ezivamile, ngoba awajwayele ukusebenza ngokwedlulele, kodwa kunalokho ngokwesilinganiso, okungukuthi, emathubeni Isenzakalo.
Okuningi okwenzekayo akwenzeki, ngomqondo ongokomfanekiso, ngesivinini socwaningo; Kuhlala kunolwazi oluthile ongakuhlenga, kusho isazi sezibalo u-Isabel Serra.
Ngokuphathelene neziphepho zelanga, umzwelo wemvelo owawulawula uphenyo lwaleli qembu lochwepheshe wawuwukuthi ngemva kwesikhashana, ngisho nangezinsuku ezalandela isenzakalo saseCarrington, kumelwe ukuba kwenzeka esinye isiphepho esifanayo esibizwa ngokuthi iLa Pista.
I-prototype ka-Riley yayimayelana nokwenzeka kwalezi zenzakalo ngokukhululeka, ukuze isikhathi sokulinda phakathi kwazo sicishe sifane; Okusho ukuthi, kuhlale kwenzeka ngendlela efanayo.
Izinqubo ze-Poisson, njengoba zaziwa ezibalweni, ziyizinqubo zomzimba.
Ngolimi lwezibalo, umthetho wezinqubo ezingavamile noma izinqubo ze-Poisson yindlela lezi zifundo ezaziwa ngayo; Izinqubo eziningi zomzimba ziphishekela lokhu kuziphatha. Kodwa-ke, lapho becwaninga ngokwezibalo imvamisa lezi ziphepho ezinamandla zelanga ezenzeke ngayo, ngokwenkomba ye-(DST) enikezwe i-WDC Kyoto Observatory, zembula ukuthi zenzeke ngemodeli eyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu.
Esikubonayo ukuthi uma kuthatha isikhathi eside ukuthi kwenzeke isigameko esibi kakhulu, kumele silinde isikhathi eside ukuze sibuke esinye. Uma kwenzeka, amathuba ayanda futhi ngakusasa kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi kuzokwenzeka enye.
Lokhu kwaziwa ngokuthi Izinga Lengozi Elinciphayo (DHR), eliphinde lilawule izenzakalo zemvelo eziningi, njengalezi: ukufa kwezinsana; Njengamanje ingane izelwe kungenzeka ukuthi izoshona, kodwa njengoba izinsuku ziqhubeka kungenzeki lokhu, maningi amathuba okuthi ingabe isashona, ayanda amathuba okuba iphile.
Okuphambene kwenzeka lapho ufinyelela ebudaleni, lapho izingqinamba ziphambene khona ncamashi, okungukuthi, kunethuba elikhulu lokufa kunokuphila.
Endabeni yeziphepho zelanga, lesi sibalo samathuba senziwa; Ngalo mbono, balinganisela ukuthi kungenzeka kube khona cishe u-2%, naphezu kokungakhiqizi noma yimuphi umcimbi waseCarrington, okusho ukuthi, ngonyaka olandelayo uyaqhubeka nokuwa. Akulona ngempela uhlobo oluhluke kakhulu, kodwa olujwayelekile kakhulu olunezibalo zika-Riley.
Kungase kube nanoma yisiphi isici esibangele isiphepho esinamandla ukuba siqale futhi kubalulekile ukucabanga ukuthi njengoba isikhathi sihamba leso sici siyahlakazeka; Yingakho aya ngokuya encipha amathuba okuthi umcimbi onje ungaphinde wenzeke.
Nakuba ithuba elingu-2% lingakhathazeki kakhulu ngalolu hlobo lwesiphepho, alikwazi ukushaywa indiva ngenxa yemiphumela yaso. Bonke ohulumeni kumele babe nemithethonqubo yokubhekana nalezi zinhlekelele, bazise futhi baqinisekise izakhamuzi ezingase zisale zingenawo amandla futhi zinqanyulwe ekuxhumaneni. Akufanele kukhohlakale ukuthi sizobe sincane isikhathi esisele ngaphambi kokuthi kufike isiphepho salolu hlobo.
